The Dark Knight Rises - TRAILER

Yet another 2012 movie I am so so so excited about.

Check it out below:

IOWA: Who's Gunna Win??

So, the two latest polls coming out of Iowa look really good for a somewhat surprising candidate: Ron Paul. The storyline the past two days or so has been that Gingrich's numbers in IA have totally imploded, while Paul has risen and taken the lead. Looking more closely at the numbers/trends, it also looks like someone else has been benefitting from his attack ads the past week or so - Rick Perry. Here are some of the numbers:

Insider Advantage (12/18): Paul 24%, Romney 18%, Perry 16%, Gingrich 13%, Bachmann 10%, Huntsman 4%, Santorum 3%.
PPP (12/16-12/18): Paul 23%, Romney 20%, Gingrich 14%, Perry 10%, Bachmann 10%, Santorum 10%, Huntsman 4%.

And check out the latest RealClearPolitics graph mapping the trends in the state:

So, what can we gather from all of this?

First of all, the attack ads that have been airing across IA have taken a huge toll on Gingrich's numbers. His lack of any real campaign infrastructure there probably has as well. According to PPP, he was leading the field with 27% just two weeks ago. It looks like those numbers were premature and flimsy. Right now, it definitely doesn't look like Gingrich is going to win the first caucus in the nation.

Secondly, something that I think is being overlooked are Perry's numbers. The RCP average over the last five days has Perry in fourth place with 12%...but if the Insider Advantage numbers are to be believed, Perry is definitely trending in the right direction right now. He's definitely got momentum building. His numbers will be the ones to look at in the next couple of polls - is he staying around 10%, or is he moving up into the high teens? If he's moving up, I'd say he has a shot.

Third, of course the thing everyone is talking about right now is how Paul is now leading the field. And it's definitely true. But, like every other blogger and political journalist out there, I'll reiterate that his numbers are made up of an unconventional (read: young and unreliable) bloc of voters and he has less growing room than some of the other front-runners (read: Romney). Conventional wisdom is that Paul has the strongest operation going in IA, and this will definitely be huge for GOTV efforts come caucus day. But will it be enough? 

Now that I've gotten those formalities out of the way, I want to go out on a limb and say that Paul's support is much stronger than most reporters are giving him credit for. Yes, he loses to Romney 10-28 among voters older than 65. But not only does he lead Romney by a whopping 48-3 (45 points!) among voters under 30 and by 18 points among voters 30-44, but he is also essentially tied with him among voters 45-64 (22 for Paul, 21.6 for Romney). So, he leads in nearly every age group, among both men and women, and among Independents, Democrats, and yes, even Republicans. In other words, the only groups Paul is not winning are the over-65 crowd and blacks and hispanics (who make up a pretty small number of the IA electorate). 

At this point, I'd say the newest IA numbers are pointing toward a three-way race: Paul, Romney, and Perry. Of course, everything can change in 24 hours - and we're still 15 days away from the caucuses. Newt could go on the air and make a resurgence; Romney's numbers could solidify as we get closer; Bachman (or even Santorum) could climb just enough to play spoiler. (On that last note, one more thing to look for in the next few polls: where are Santorum's numbers at? 3% in Insider Advantage and 10% in PPP are very different, especially in a field as big as this one, where those seven points could mean the difference between a Perry win or a Romney win). So, all of this is pretty irrelevant. I just wanted to share the poll numbers with you, and let you know my amateur opinion of what they might possibly mean.

Please comment and let me know what YOU think is going to happen! And thank you for reading. I'm going to try and start updating this pretty regularly, maybe even a few times a day - even just with links to cool articles and the like. Feel free to leave comments to let me know what you'd like to see more of!

-Ryan